Greetings Friends,

As most people are getting swept up in Fleetwood Mac’s Dreams and swigging cranberry cocktail, I’ve recently begun watching Game of Thrones. I know, I know, I’m late to the Game. But I’ve never been much of a TV trend follower.

In the show there is a common, dread-filled refrain: Winter is coming. 

Even though there are some comparisons to be made between the Lanisters and the Trudeaus (or any powerful elites for that matter), or a seeming parallel between the fear of C19 and that of the White Walkers. There is one parallel which is accurate; Winter is coming.

As we are now in the second week of October, leaves are falling, wool is being worn and apples are being picked outdoors (by reservation only, at most orchards, this year.) Along with these delights, TRREB (and PKAR) released their September sales stats yesterday; there were some amazing gains made and some other items to note!

Random Opinions:

The advancing cool months will tell an interesting story about the resiliency of one of North America’s hottest real estate markets. Some pundits claim we are in a bubble, while others (myself included) believe we are still growing based on demographics, population, historical low interest rates, and the positive, global sentiment towards Toronto (**markets are mostly a measure of a population’s psychology.**) We are already seeing that the recovery will be uneven but especially difficult for retail, service and hospitality folks.

As the inept, government bureaucrats continue to meddle in the markets (think of the arbitrary restrictions on businesses, central bank interest rate manipulation and the brooding Knight’s Watch at the CMHC, all assisted by the fear-mongering media outlets), there is a looming sense of trouble brewing in the broader economy, but more specifically within ground floor commercial.

The Canadian weather will force patios to close (Winter is Coming), CRB loans will become fumes, and the future of wage subsidies is unknown. We may see uncomfortable decisions be made by small business owners and commercial landlords. Might there be a rash of businesses for sale (others shuttered for good) and/or a drop in commercial rents and sale prices?

Again, time will tell.

Fun stuff.

Anyway, stay tuned next month for another review of a 10 year-old show and a quirky update on the markets.