Despite a hundred thousand people moving into the Greater Toronto Area annually, there’s actually a decline in population in many of the single family neighborhoods in Toronto and many of the cities and towns of the region.
The problem has gotten so bad that according to a study in 2017, 48% of schools in Toronto were threatened to close as a result of non-enrollment. (note 1)
At the same time, many schools in higher density areas with continued growth are experiencing an overcrowding of students.
Why is that?
Many low-rise residential zones of the first ring suburban neighbourhoods known loosely as the yellowbelt (In Metro Toronto, think Etobicoke, North York, Scarborough) once housed a nuclear family with parents and several kids in the mid to late 20th century.
However, many of these homes are now housed by empty nesters or small families that were able to afford the property before the extreme price run-up of the past 2 decades.
In Toronto, the area zoned exclusively for single detached residential housing (RD zone) is 200 square kilometres. To give some context, Manhattan is 87 square kilometres.(note 2)
Because many young families are unable to afford homes in these neighborhoods, there is a hollowing out of the population in these areas. Many of these current residents either don’t have kids or very few.
Often, “incumbent” residents in these neighborhoods see no reason to sell or leave their homes if they’re seeing a 10% annual price increase a year.
This has resulted in a glut of empty bedrooms across the province. In fact, 5 million empty bedrooms according to a study. (note 3)
So the housing crisis is real. On a net basis, cities and towns are experiencing very high growth. It’s just that certain already dense areas are more than making up for the decline in other areas.
What should we do?
Very simple, we should knock on the doors of the residents in these low-rise neighborhoods, and ask them to house kids in their empty bedrooms.
Just kidding – that’s not going to happen.
There isn’t one solution, but there are several that can be stitched together to increase the needed population in these neighborhoods.
We’re not going to be able to change the demographic trends of reduced family sizes, so the logical overarching solution is to increase the number of total units in these neighborhoods, thereby boosting the number of residents in a community with an increase in family units.
In addition to more family units, there are other solutions available. Let’s briefly explore a few.
Existing homeowners, investors and developers should consider the following options:
1. Legal Second Suites
This is one obvious solution. Legislation has allowed this in most municipalities since 2012, and it’s a no brainer for any homeowner or investor to add in a second unit to increase the value of the property while generating additional income.
2. Legal Third Suites
This is newer, and now available in a small handful of cities. Provincial Bill 108 The More Homes More Choice Act passed in 2019 will be asking cities to amend their zoning by-laws to allow legal third suites in the form of a detached accessory unit.
A perfect scenario here would be empty nesters building one of these units, moving into it, and renting out the main house to 2 separate tenants. They could even allow their own adult kids who have their own young family to move into the main house.
In Portland, Oregon, the model for high density residential in R1 neighborhoods for the rest of North America, they recently enacted a law that allows up to 4 units. (note 4)
3. Higher Density Housing
Although I’m not a big fan of demolishing perfectly fine homes to build new ones, if you can add a substantial number of units, this can be feasible. There’s no need to build huge condo towers. If you can add a 3 storey apartment with say 8-12 units, that’s a great use of space. Unfortunately this is not something that is easily achievable now in our R1 and R2 zones. Our zoning by-laws needs to change to allow these.
4. Co-Living Arrangements
This is a great solution for those who wish to age-in-place, reduce expenditures, maintain community and even have extra funds for hired help, such as cooking, cleaning and landscaping. Co-living arrangements can also work for younger people who wish to reduce expenses, and allow them to access desirable neighbourhoods for schools and other amenities. Even in a co-living arrangement, separate units and privacy should be designed or retrofitted into the overall property. (note 5)
5. Infill Development
Several years ago, the city of Edmonton allowed homeowners to easily subdivide their lots to a minimum of 7.5 meters, thereby enabling many developers to build an additional skinny home beside their existing home, or tearing down a very old house and building 2 new ones.
We see these in Toronto as well, but the process is extremely challenging and expensive. As a result, these projects are only feasible for developers with deep pockets, creating expensive new homes that only the very wealthy can afford. If you can additionally build a 2nd and 3rd suite on each one, then it makes much more sense. This is something to also explore in the coming years.
Above are just some ideas to help repopulate many of our suburban neighborhoods that have a declining population. There are many other solutions which I haven’t touched on. If you’re interested in learning more about these solutions, I recommend a few resources below.
Regardless of what’s happening in the world right now, the urban population will continue to grow. Even if people are less interested in living in the high density cores and prefer suburban neighborhoods, it is still within the boundaries of the urban municipality. By using a creative approach, we can help rebalance the dichotomy between the extreme density and growth in many of our core areas, with the population decline in the low-rise neighborhoods.
And of course, generate some wealth while doing so.
Credit to: Suite Additions